Tuesday, July 27, 2010

Nasty (And I ain't Talking About Ms. Jackson) - Or Not So Nasty?

No big post tonight. Out Golfing with Little Shanky 1. 

First the nasty -

4hr Minis - This chart really looks bad for the bulls. Quite the reversal candle. Slight throwover of the sky blue wedge. Green wedge (E up of the A-E rising wedge) ending. The 200ma is at 74. I'm gonna guess Thursday at the close we hit 79/81 and get the next small pop. Pick your poison, but that triangle to ending wedge I have been showing for a week or so is coming to an end. The target is not pretty if it plays out. This mat be the last stopping point for the bulls for a couple of years if not longer. No, I am not kidding. If this is not the top then keep on reading below for a slightly more bullish scenario.
Now for the cautionary upside continuation part -

Looking at my CPC chart notice the bottom in P1 and the top in P2 and how the MA is approaching that level. there is not really anything here telling me that this market is ready to turn other than this potential level (red dashed horizontal line). That horizontal black dashed line has been there for a while now. it is a speculative turn date I have had for some time.
Weekly SPX - Better viewed HERE - says the turn may not be in quite yet but it may be close. I'd like to see SPXA50 hit 400 and for NYMO to set a divergence (this divergence can be seen on the CPC chart above as well) Another concern is that the ADX is not right quite yet either. Maybe it just tops, or maybe we have to wait for some reliable signals to come and signal the turn