Monday, December 7, 2009

Is There Any Good News?

Trick question, it depends on if you are a bull or a bear. If you want to hear something good go back to watching CNBS or turn on CNN where you'll get some sort of sanitized feed that will keep you in the dark forever. If you want to hear me gloat in the impending doom of our democracy or hear me bash on a politician du jour, please read on.

I was going to try to string these few Zerohedge posts into a clever scentance, but could not pull it off. You 'll get the gist of what I was going to try to get across as Most Recent Insider Selling to Buying Ratio: 82:1 as Consumer Credit Contracts For 9th Straight Month, Non-Revolving Credit Increases, but since Cash is King  there is no need to worry about Fried Calamari? for dinner. Wait a minute - I did make a sentence out of it. Caution, that may become some sort of new game for Shanky to play with himself. I think Marla may appreciate that (the sentence - not the playing thingy).

Mish has a good one from the most corrupt city in the USA. We all know Chcago is a really screwed up place that has produced a litany of characters that leave much to be desired (most recently our president). So what do they do to balance their budget? Chicago Cannibalization: Mayor Daley's Budget Eats 75% of a 75 Year rainy Day fund in One Year You just have to read this one to believe it. Creative financing at it's finest. And some wonder why I am such a perma bear? Cities, states, federal governments are using every available crutch right now without regard to the future consequences to solve a variety of funding issues. You talk about a recipe for disaster. The dig drop, deflation, depression is coming folks. It is just a matter of time.

Since we're dissing local governments (like shooting fish in a barrel these days) why don't we try But Wait, How About The States? from Dennninger. "Things are probably worse than most people believe," state Sen. Mike Doherty told me the other day. "It’s questionable if we’ll even be able to meet payroll in a few weeks." Oh kay, so payroll may be a problem as well as some possible bond default issues (nothing to worry about- really ;-)). Don't say they did not tell you so and don't say I did not tell you so. It is only a matter of time and the ammunition used in reflation project 2009 is empty.

naked capitalism has a must read in Newsweek: Goldman Supplied 9 Pages of Proposed Changes to Derivatives Legislation. This one is a classic, "Newsweek’s “Why is Barney Frank So Effing Mad?” is supposedly about the Congressman from Fidelity but is really about how the banksters are succeeding in neutering financial reform. One Congressional staffer has told me that everyone involved recognizes the measures don’t go far enough, but feel they can’t do much more (Congress can step out only so far ahead of the Executive, and this one clearly is in no mood to take a more aggressive stand)."  You'll laugh and cry your way thru a great article that is filled with suspence (just how much of the recent legislation did GS actually write) and humor regarding the neuterization of everything in Washington. This one might actually make you scream.

The Pragmatic capitalist brings you 10 REASONS THE EQUITY RALLY IS OVER from Rosie. BUT, BUT, BUT - TPC has this to say, "In other words, we remain in a “beat and raise” world.  That is unchanged for now and will ultimately be the reason why David’s 10 reasons are wrong and why the unwavering bear will be wrong again about this market top…." I'll have to go comment on this one later on TPC's site. They do great work and maybe I need some clarification to his statement. I can actually go for a little more manipulated upside, but his "improvement in corporate margins" reasoning has me a bit miffed.

So, where do you stand? Washington's Blog has 79% of Americans Want an Audit of the Fed, Only 21% are in Favor of Confirming Bernanke, and Only 20% Think Geithner is Doing a Good Job. "Trust will not be restored until Bernanke and Geithner are replaced with people whose loyalty is to the American public and small businesses, rather than the Wall Street giants, and whose track record demonstrates that they will put the American people and entire economy as a whole - rather than the big boys - first."  I could not have said it better and the sooner we get these self serving bastards out of their posts the better off we will be. Oh, did you read where Kashkari is going to work? Now the Kashkari Puff Piece Makes Perfect Sense

The Big Picture has a nice post on Who Wins When the US Dollar Falls? that you should read.

That is enough for now. Yet another day without any good news (unless you want to count TPC's statement that I am ignoring). Market is very toppy now and teetering, but that is usually when the PPT/reinflation team is at their best. I am very suspicious of them letting the dollar breathe a little and then using it's powers to assist in halting any major down turns that may be imminent (note the market fell today 15min before the dollar reacted)

GL out there and happy holidays.